Arctic temperatures are astonishingly warmer than they should be

This year was the second lowest on record. While that in itself is significant, what happened next was even more surprising. That is amplifying temperatures to abnormal levels. Zack Labe

Each year Arctic sea ice reaches its minimum in September.— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) November 22, 2020

“It’s all but becoming an annual reminder of the rapid climate change we have observed in the Arctic,” explains Dr. Finally! it has been an extraordinary year of weather/climate extremes[Data from JRA-55 reanalysis]— Zack Labe (@ZLabe) November 18, 2020

So what does this all mean to most of the world’s population that lives far south of the Arctic? Would be even more extreme compared to pre-industrial. This is not just one location, but the average of all 7.7 million square miles. Temperatures anomalies over the last 9 months in Siberia… Get Breaking News Delivered to Your Inbox

While the pace of global warming is the fastest we have seen in millions of years, nowhere is it warming faster than the Arctic. Temperatures in the Arctic are rising at three times the pace of the rest of the globe. In 2020, Arctic warming is among the highest levels yet. According to the University of Maine’s Climate Reanlayzer, this weekend the Arctic Circle was an average 12 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Repeat: the average for the entire Arctic is 12 degrees above what was normal in 1990. But since the 1970s, sea ice extent has been decreasing quickly and sea ice volume has dropped by two-thirds. Climate Change

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This resulted in the Northeast Passage along the Siberian coast, which used to be rarely ever open, remaining passable for a record 112 days, shattering the old record by about a month. The plot below shows how Arctic amplification during the autumn months is boosting warming faster than any other time of year. Zack Labe, an Arctic climate specialist from Colorado State University. The northeast passage through the Arctic Ocean, along the Siberian coast, has finally frozen shut after a record 112 days.Open seaways in the Arctic Ocean used to be rare, with some years never opening at all, and now open water lasts for months. “There is [still] a large area of open water that would normally be sea ice covered.”As a result, the lack of sea ice cover and open water is allowing heat to be transferred from the ocean into the overlying atmosphere very late into the season. This is one of the most intensely studied and debated topics in climate science right now, and one that is yet to have a clear answer.With such dramatic changes occurring across the Arctic, scientists agree there’s bound to be a domino effect into the mid-latitudes. In Siberia, from January to June 2020, a heat wave so widespread, prolonged and intense occurred that scientists found it would have been essentially impossible without human-caused climate change, and was made at least 600 times more likely by greenhouse warming.That abnormal warmth has persisted all year. But as you can see in the image below, which illustrates departures from normal, the bright red shaded patches indicate that temperatures are greater than 20 degrees Celsius (30-40 degrees F) above where they should be at this time of year. 
The Arctic is more than 12 degrees above normal. He warns that we should pay close attention to the dramatic changes in the Arctic because it’s a bellwether for the rest of us: “The Arctic is really a warning sign of future climate change around the rest of the planet.”
First published on November 23, 2020 / 10:26 AM The Arctic is mainly ocean covered by millions of square miles of sea ice most of the year.— Robert Rohde (@RARohde) November 3, 2020

Although the Arctic is warming all year round, the strongest warming — known as Arctic amplification — occurs during the fall months.”All of the heat that was absorbed into the ocean from the summer is released back into the atmosphere as sea ice begins reforming ahead of the winter,” explains Labe. While the details are still being worked out, what appears most clear is that Arctic amplification is linked to more climate extremes in the Northern Hemisphere, potentially by shifting atmospheric and perhaps even ocean steering currents.What’s happening in the Arctic, says Labe, is consistent with our projections in global climate models, lending credibility to future projections. That is a huge area, nearly double the size of the entire United States, being on average 12 degrees above normal.Now, it’s far from toasty warm in the Arctic; temperatures are near zero in many places. The recovery of sea ice stalled for a few weeks, with October breaking records for the lowest sea ice extent on record. Zack Labe

This is having implications outside of the Arctic Ocean as well.  

Arctic sea ice thickness has declined significantly in recent decades. *Yikes* Lower atmosphere temperature anomalies over the last 6 months in the northernmost region of the #Arctic…[Data from JRA-55 reanalysis; averaged ≥80°N latitude; 925 hPa level]— Zack Labe (@ZLabe) November 18, 2020

The rapid warming trend in the Arctic can be traced to the unique makeup of the Arctic Ocean, which is rapidly changing. Temperatures in the Arctic are astonishingly warmer than they should be

By Jeff Berardelli

November 23, 2020 / 10:26 AM
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It’s been happening for several years now, especially in the autumn, but it never ceases to unsettle meteorologists like myself: Temperatures in the Arctic are astonishingly warmer than they should be. #Arctic air temperature anomalies broken down by season[JRA-55 reanalysis; 1958-2019; >67°N latitude —> grey map region]— Zack Labe (@ZLabe) January 23, 2020

“The Arctic has transitioned from a state of old and thick sea ice to one with thin, first-year ice accompanied by rapidly warming ocean and air temperatures,” explains Labe, providing evidence that the Arctic is shifting into a new climate regime.